区域能源供给安全水平动态性评价——以西北和东北能源富集区为例

(1.西安科技大学 安全科学与工程学院,陕西 西安 710054; 2.延安大学 经济管理学院,陕西 延安 716000; 3.西安科技大学 能源经济与管理研究中心,陕西 西安 710054)

区域能源供给安全; 动态评价; 纵横向拉开档次法; 二次加权; 面板数据

Dynamic evaluation on regional energy supply security——Taking northwest and northeast China energy enrichment area as example
LI Pin1,3,ZHANG Jin-suo2

(1.College of Safety Science and Engineering,Xi'an University of Science and Technology,Xi'an 710054,China; 2.School of Economics and Management,Yan'an University,Yan'an 716000,China; 3.Research Center for Energy Economy and Management,Xi'an University of Science and Technology,Xi'an 710054,China)

regional energy supply security; dynamic evaluation; vertical and horizontal methods; twice-weighted; panel data

DOI: 10.13800/j.cnki.xakjdxxb.2019.0122

备注

能源供给是能源安全的核心,区域能源供给安全又是能源供给安全问题的主要内容。文中在综述国内外文献的基础上,结合中国区域能源供给安全的状况,从可用性、可支付性、环境可接受性和能源技术与效率4个维度构建了影响我国区域能源供给安全的指标体系,以2005—2017年我国能源富集区西北5省和东北3省8个省份的面板数据为研究样本,采用基于二次加权的“纵横向拉开档次法”动态模型对上述省份的能源供给安全进行评价。研究发现:以2010年为分界点,2010年以前西北和东北能源富集区能源供给安全水平不高,但是2010年以后均有较大提高。不同地区影响能源供给安全的主要因素也不一定完全相同,资源禀赋是保证能源供给安全的基础条件,但要真正实现供给安全还要取决于价格,环境,效率等其他因素。总体来看,能源资源丰富,多样化程度高,能源利用效率较高的地区,如宁夏省和辽宁省能源供给安全水平相对较高一些。但是,从安全等级来看,样本区间内各省份的能源供给安全水平均不高,均处于安全等级以下。

Energy supply is the core issue of energy security.The security of regional energy supply is an important issue in energy security.This paper is based on the review of domestic and foreign literature,combined with the situation of regional energy supply security in China,and tried to construct the index system of regional energy supply security in four dimensions as availability,affordability,environmental acceptability,energy technology and efficiency.The panel data that were collected from eight provinces in northwest and northeast of China from 2005 to 2017 were used as the research sample.Using the dynamic model,this paper shows the dynamic evolution trend of the energy supply security in different provinces.Comparing the energy supply security situation and the main driving factors in different regions,we provide a new idea and method for the study of energy supply security in China.The study found that taking 2010 as the dividing point,the security level of energy supply in northwest and northeast areas are not high before 2010,but it has been greatly improved since 2010.The main factors affecting the security of energy supply are not necessarily the same in different regions.Resource endowment is the basic condition to ensure energy supply security,but it also depends on price,environment,efficiency and other factors to realize the security of supply.In general,regions with abundant energy resources,high degree of diversification and high energy utilization efficiency,such as Ningxia and Liaoning,have relatively higher levels of energy supply security.However,from the perspective of security level,energy supply security level in each province is not high,all of which are below the security level within the sample period.