大数据理论下的煤与瓦斯突出事故致因分析

1.重庆大学 煤矿灾害动力学与控制国家重点实验室,重庆 400030; 2.重庆大学 资源及环境科学学院,重庆 400030

安全科学与工程; 煤与瓦斯突出; 大数据理论; 致因; 瓦斯含量

Analysis of causes of coal and gas outburst accidents based on big data theory
SI Hu1,2,ZHAO Jian-nan1,2,HU Qian-ting1,2

(1.State Key of Laboratory of Coal Mine Disaster Dynamic and Control, Chongqing University,Chongqing 400030,China; 2.College of Resource and Environment Science, Chongqing University,Chongqing 400030,China)

safety science and engineering; coal and gas outburst; big data theory; influential factors; gas content

DOI: 10.13800/j.cnki.xakjdxxb.2018.0401

备注

煤与瓦斯突出事故致因分析对矿井的安全生产具有重要意义。文中将大数据理论应用于煤与瓦斯突出事故致因分析,旨在为突出事故提供一种新的研究方法。对近15 a来发生的一般及以上的煤与瓦斯突出事故进行统计分析与深度挖掘,提取影响煤与瓦斯突出事故发生的27个因素。采用关联分析对影响因素进行定量研究,分析其重要程度; 并将其中7个主要因素分别与瓦斯含量和瓦斯压力进行交叉耦合分析,归纳煤与瓦斯突出事故发生的一般性规律。研究表明:造成煤与瓦斯突出事故的主要影响因素不仅是瓦斯含量和瓦斯压力,地质构造、煤层厚度、开拓方式、采煤工艺、作业方式和掘进工艺也对煤与瓦斯突出事故具有重要影响; 在不同开采条件下发生煤与瓦斯突出的临界瓦斯含量差异较大,对于复杂地质构造的矿井,当瓦斯含量接近8 m3/t时采取区域防突措施,才能有效地防止突出事故的发生; 利用大数据理论分析煤与瓦斯突出事故可以为事故的预测预警提供可信的依据,能有效提高煤与瓦斯突出预测的准确率。

The analysis of the causes of coal and gas outburst accidents is of great significance to the safe production of mines.This paper applies the big data theory to the cause analysis of coal and gas outburst accidents,aiming to provide a new research method for highlighting accidents.The statistical analysis and in-depth probe of coal and gas outburst accidents occurred in the past 15 years have extracted 27 factors that have affected the occurrence of coal and gas outburst accidents.The correlation analysis was used to quantitatively study the influential factors and analyze their importance.Seven of them were cross-coupledly analyzed with the gas content and gas pressure,and the general laws of coal and gas outburst accidents were summarized.The research shows that the main influential factors on coal and gas outburst accidents are not only gas content and gas pressure,but also geological structure,coal seam thickness,mining depth,development methods,coal mining technology,operation methods and excavation technology,which also influence the coal and gas outburst accidents.And the critical gas content and gas pressure under different mining conditions are different for coal and gas outburst.In summary,taking into account the safety of mining and the safety cost of coal mining enterprises,when the gas content reaches 8 m3/t,coal and gas outburst prevention measures should be taken to ensure the safe production of mines.The analysis of coal and gas outburst accidents with big data theory provides a credible basis for the prediction and early warning of accidents,and can effectively improve the accuracy rate of prediction of coal and gas outbursts.