中国能源供给安全影响因素研究
李 品1,2

1.西安科技大学 安全科学与工程学院,陕西 西安 710054; 2.西安科技大学 能源经济与管理研究中心,陕西 西安 710054

安全科学与工程; 能源供给安全; 因子分析; 岭回归; 绿色供给

Influential factors of energy supply security of China
LI Pin1,2

(1.College of Safety Science and Engineering,Xi'an University of Science and Technology,Xi'an 710054,China; 2.Research Center for Energy Economy and Management,Xi'an University of Science and Technology,Xi'an 710054,China)

safety science and engineering; energy supply security; factor analysis; ridge regression; green supply

DOI: 10.13800/j.cnki.xakjdxxb.2018.0309文章编号: 1672-9315(2018)03-0403-08

备注

能源供给安全是能源安全中的关键问题,能源供给和安全事关中国现代化建设和发展全局。能源供给安全是动态变化的,具有显著的时代特征,影响因素也较为复杂,结合时代特点深入研究其影响因素具有重要意义。文中在文献回顾的基础上,综合前人的研究成果,结合中国目前的能源发展现状和专家意见,提取出10种中国能源供给安全的主要影响因子,利用1995—2014年间的统计数据,基于因子分析和岭回归方法,实证研究了不同影响因子对于能源供给安全的影响程度。结果 显示:每个影响因子对于能源供给安全的影响程度是不相同的,能源自给率对能源供给安全的影响程度最大达6.34%,技术进步和产业结构对能源供给安全的影响程度较大,大于2%,经济环境和可再生能源产量对能源供给安全的影响不显著,低于1%.该结论符合中国实际,依据上述结论结合新时代能源发展要求从能源资源禀赋、能源技术水平、产业结构调整、能源价格和能源供给多样化5个方面提出了优化中国能源供给安全的相应对策。

Energy supply security is a key issue in energy security research field.Energy supply and security concerns the overall situation of China's modernization and development.Energy supply security is dynamic and has the characteristic of times,therefore there are many complicated factors affecting it.So,it is of great significance to have a deep study on it.Obtaining eleven factors influencing our energy supply security by an extensive literature review,this paper studied the correlations of energy supply security and its influential factors based on factor analysis and ridge regression method using the data from 1995 to 2014 in China by an empirical method.The results show that different factors have different influence on the energy supply security.Energy self-sufficiency has the greatest impact of 6.34% on energy supply security.Technological progress and industrial structure also have significant influence on energy supply security by over 2%.Whereas,the impact of economic environment and renewable energy on energy supply security is not significant,which is less than 1%.The result is consistent with the truth.According to the aforementioned result,the paper has proposed countermeasures and suggestions on optimizing the energy supply security from five aspects of energy resources endowment,energy technical level,industrial structures,energy prices and diversification level of energy supply combined with the requirement for development of energy in the new era.