采场断层活化期望模型的构建及应用

内蒙古科技大学 煤炭学院,内蒙古 包头 014010

断层活化; GM模型; 灰色关联; 突变级数; 临界阈值

Construction and application of stope fault activation expectation model
SUN Ming,ZHENG Wen-xiang,DUAN Xiao-bo,REN Zhong-han

(School of Coal Science and Engineering,Inner Mongolia University of Science and Technology,Baotou 014010,China)

fault activation; GM model; grey correlation; catastrophe progression; critical threshold

备注

着眼各型断层对煤矿安全的负面干扰,概括采场断层活化期望控制指标体系并关联保护煤柱。用GM(1,1),Verhust,残差GM和GMANN构建数据挖掘模型实现比较准确拓展样本数据,选择成本型或效益型函数去除量纲实现归一。综合关联分析表明,有效隔水层厚度和工作面长度是断层失稳活化主导因素,以接近关联和相似关联研究证明断层倾角与断层活化失稳的耦合关系并未完全显化。经突变级数法给出活化期望系数并把0.88,0.84和0.74作为临界阈值,分级结果相对符合样本实例。应用表明,模型比较准确且相对保真,具备一定研究价值和基本实际意义。

Focus on the all kinds of coalmine fault's negative impact on coal mine safety,the fault activation expect control indicator system was generalized and associated with the protected coal pillar size.The great sample data was expanded by the Data mining model,which is composed of the GM(1,1),the Verhust,the residual error GM and the GMANN.The cost or the benefit function were to remove the data dimension,then the dominant factors(the effective water-resisting layer thickness and the working face length)were got by the grey comprehensive analysis,the close and the similar correlation were to study the fuzzy relationship between instability process and the fault dip angle.The expectation coefficient was determined by the catastrophe progression method,the critical threshold(0.88,0.84 and 0.74)are well conform to the fact.The application shows that the model is comparative preciseness and relative fidelity,with some research significance and basic fact significance.