[1]乔德京,王念秦,郭有金,等.加权确定性系数模型的滑坡易发性评价[J].西安科技大学学报,2020,(02):259-267.
 QIAO De-jing,WANG Nian-qin,GUO You-Jin,et al.Landslide susceptibility assessment based on weighted certainty factor model[J].Journal of Xi'an University of Science and Technology,2020,(02):259-267.
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加权确定性系数模型的滑坡易发性评价(/HTML)
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西安科技大学学报[ISSN:1672-9315/CN:61-1434/N]

卷:
期数:
2020年02期
页码:
259-267
栏目:
出版日期:
2020-03-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Landslide susceptibility assessment based on weighted certainty factor model
文章编号:
1672-9315(2020)02-0259-09
作者:
乔德京王念秦郭有金杨盼盼
(西安科技大学 地质与环境学院,陕西 西安 710054)
Author(s):
QIAO De-jingWANG Nian-qinGUO You-JinYANG Pan-pan
(College of Geology and Environment,Xi'an University of Science and Technology,Xi'an 710054,China)
关键词:
滑坡 易发性评价 WCF模型 随机森林 确定性系数
Keywords:
landslide susceptibility assessment WCF model random forest certainty factor
分类号:
P 642
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
针对传统的滑坡灾害易发性评价中仅考虑评价因子间的一级指标权重或者因子各分级状态的二级指标权重,未能考虑各评价因子各分级状态的综合权重,从而导致评价结果缺乏一定适应性问题。文中提出了将随机森林模型(Random Forest,RF)和确定性系数模型(Certainty Factor,CF)相耦合的加权确定性系数评价模型(Weighted Certainty Factor,WCF)。该模型通过CF模型计算二级指标因子权重,并利用RF模型计算出一级指标因子权重,然后通过将所有指标因子的易发性指数进行加权求和,获得多种因素耦合下的滑坡灾害易发性程度。以陕西省西安市周至县为研究区,在对研究区的地质环境、人类活动情况、滑坡分布特征及形成条件进行了综合分析的基础上,选取了14类与滑坡发生相关的指示因子,结合GIS的空间分析功能,分别采用CF,RF和WCF模型对研究区内滑坡灾害易发性进行区划,各模型的评价结果采用Kappa系数进行对比验证。研究结果表明:研究区内的滑坡主要受高程、地貌类型、与断层距离因子的影响,各因子所占权重分别为0.27,0.12,0.11; 改进后的WCF模型区划结果的准确性相对于RF和CF模型提高了5.2%和9.9%.由此表明,WCF模型更适用于研究区的滑坡易发性评价,评价结果可为研究区的滑坡灾害防治规划提供重要的参考价值。
Abstract:
The susceptibility assessment of landslide hazard is the basis for geological hazard risk assessment.Taking Zhouzhi County of Xi'an City,Shaanxi Province as an example,based on the analysis of geological environment,landslide distribution characteristics and formation conditions in the area,14 evaluation factors of topography,hydrology,geology and human engineering activities were selected.The random forest(RF)model and the deterministic coefficient(CF)model were used to evaluate the susceptibility of landslides in the area.According this paper combines the weight of the first-level index factor of the random forest model and the weight of the second-level index factor of the deterministic coefficient model and proposes a landslide susceptibility evaluation model based on the weighted deterministic coefficient(WCF),which was use to evaluate the susceptibility of landslides in the study area.The evaluation results of each model were compared and verified by the Kappa coefficient.The results show that the landslides in the study area are mainly affected by elevation,landform type,and fault distance factor,and the weights of each factor are 0.27,0.12,and 0.11,respectively.The prediction accuracy of the WCF model is 5.2% and 9.9% higher than that of the RF and that of CF models,respectively.The model turns out to be better for evaluating the susceptibility of landslides in the region.

参考文献/References:

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2019-05-18 责任编辑:李克永
基金项目:国家自然科学基金(41572287)
更新日期/Last Update: 2020-03-30