[1]云小红,张金锁,金 浩.煤炭供应链牛鞭效应量化研究[J].西安科技大学学报,2016,(04):560-566.[doi:10.13800/j.cnki.xakjdxxb.2016.0417]
 YUN Xiao-hong,ZHANG Jin-suo,JIN Hao.Quantitative research on bullwhip effectin the coal supply chain[J].Journal of Xi'an University of Science and Technology,2016,(04):560-566.[doi:10.13800/j.cnki.xakjdxxb.2016.0417]
点击复制

煤炭供应链牛鞭效应量化研究(/HTML)
分享到:

西安科技大学学报[ISSN:1672-9315/CN:61-1434/N]

卷:
期数:
2016年04期
页码:
560-566
栏目:
出版日期:
2016-08-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Quantitative research on bullwhip effectin the coal supply chain
文章编号:
1672-9315(2016)04-0560-07
作者:
云小红12张金锁3金 浩24
1.西安科技大学 管理学院,陕西 西安 710054;
2.西安科技大学 能源经济与管理研究中心,陕西 西安 710054;
3.延安大学 经济管理学院,陕西 延安 716000;
4.西安科技大学 理学院,陕西 西安 710054
Author(s):
YUN Xiao-hong12ZHANG Jin-suo3JIN Hao24
1.College of Management,Xi'an University of Science and Technology,Xi'an 710054,China;
2.Research Center for Energy Economic and Management,Xi'an University of Science &
Technology,Xi'an 710054,China;
3.School of Economics and Management,Yan
关键词:
牛鞭效应 煤炭供应链 季节性
Keywords:
bullwhip effect coal supply chain seasonality
分类号:
F 272
DOI:
10.13800/j.cnki.xakjdxxb.2016.0417
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
考虑一个煤炭勘探开采企业和一个煤炭销售运输企业组成的两级煤炭供应链,建立了煤炭市场需求服从SARMA时间序列过程,煤炭销售运输企业采用MA技术预测市场需求和Order-up-to库存策略的煤炭供应链牛鞭效应量化模型,并对该模型的影响因素进行理论分析和算例验证。研究表明:0<ρ<1,0<θ<1时,煤炭供应链必会产生牛鞭效应; L≤k≤S时,牛鞭效应值较小; 季节性自回归系数、季节性移动平均系数、季节性循环周期、订货提前期和历史数据个数5个参数对煤炭供应链牛鞭效应有直接影响。具体而言,季节性循环周期的增大有助于减少煤炭供应链牛鞭效应,季节性自回归系数的增大并不总是能减少煤炭供应链牛鞭效应,而季节性移动平均系数和订货提前期的减少有助于减少煤炭供应链牛鞭效应。
Abstract:
In the case of considering a two stage coal supply chain which is composed of a coal exploration and mining enterprise and a coal sales and transport enterprise,the coal market demand follows SARMA time series process,where the coal sales and transport enterprise uses MA technique to predict the market demand and order-up-to inventory policy to determine the coal quantity.The paper not only establishes a quantitative bullwhip effect model in two stage supply chain,but also theoretically analyzes and validates the size of the bullwhip effect including its influential factors.The research shows that:Firstly,when0<ρ<1,0<θ<1,the bullwhip effect in the coal supply chain must happen.Then,whenL≤k≤S,the bullwhip effect is smaller.Last,the five parameters have direct effects on the bullwhip effect in the coal supply chain,such as the seasonal autoregressive coefficient,seasonal moving average coefficient,seasonal cycle,order lead time and historical data number.Specifically,the enlargement of the seasonal cycle will help to reduce the bullwhip effect,while the seasonal autoregressive coefficients is not always can reduce the bullwhip effect,the reduction of the seasonal moving average coefficients and order lead time will help to reduce the bullwhip effect.

参考文献/References:

[1] Forrester J W.Industrial dynamic:a major breakthrough for decision makers[J].Harvard Business Review,1958,36(4):37-66.
[2] Sterman J D.Modeling managerial behavior:misperceptions of feedback in a dynamic decision making experiment[J].Management Science,1989,35(3):321-339.
[3] Lee H L,Padmanabhan V,Whang S.Information distortion in a supply chain:the bullwhip effect[J].Management Science,1997,43(4):546-558.
[4] Chen F,Drezner Z,Ryan J K.et al.Quantifying the bullwhip effect in a simple supply chain:the impact of forecasting,lead times,and information[J].Management Science,2000,46(3):436-443.
[5] Disney S M,Farasyn I,Lambrecht M.Taming the bullwhip effect whilst watching customer service in a single supply chain echelon[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2006,173(1):151-172.
[6] Gilbert K.An ARIMA supply chain model[J].Management Science,2005,51(2):305-310.
[7] 刘 红,王 平.基于ARMA(1,1)需求的多级供应链牛鞭效应真[J].系统仿真学报,2008,20(12):3 253-3 256. LIU Hong,WANG Ping.Bullwhip effect molding and simulation analysis in multi-level supply chain for ARMA(1,1)demand model[J].Journal of System Simulation,2008,20(12):3 253-3 256.
[8] Lee H L,So K C,Tang C S g S.The value of information sharing in a two-level supply chain[J].Management Science,2000,46(5):626-643.
[9] 李文立,王乐超.历史订单信息对牛鞭效应的影响分析[J].运筹与管理,2012,21(1):195-200. LI Wen-li,WANG Le-chao.Analysis of the affect of the history order information on the bullwhip effect[J].Operations Research and Management Science,2012,21(1):195-200.
[10]刘 红,王 平.基于不同预测技术的供应链牛鞭效应分析[J].系统工程理论与实践,2007(7):26-33. LIU Hong,WANG Ping.Bullwhip effect analysis in supply chain for demand forecasting technology[J].System Engineering Theory and Practice,2007(7):26-33.
[11]马云高,王能民,徐金鹏.供应链零售商预测技术研究——基于牛鞭效应的视角[J].运筹与管理,2013,22(3):53-60. MA Yun-gao,WANG Neng-min,XU Jin-peng.Analysis of retailers'forecasting technique in supply chain-based on the bullwhip effect[J].Operations Research and Management Science,2013,22(3):53-60.
[12]马云高.考虑消费者价格预测影响的牛鞭效应研究[J].运筹与管理,2012,21(6):132-137. MA Yun-gao.Analysis of bullwhip effect under customers' price forecasting behavior[J].Operations Research and Management Science,2012,21(6):132-137.
[13]Zhang X L.The impact of forecasting methods on the bullwhip effect[J].International Journal of Production Economics,2004,88(1):15-27.
[14]马云高.基于零售商与消费者预测行为的牛鞭效应[J].系统工程,2011,29(8):14-19. MA Yun-gao.Bullwhip effect based on retailers and customers'forecasting behaviors[J].Systems Engineering,2011,29(8):14-19.
[15]Wadhwa S,Bibhushan,Prakash A.Service performance of some supply chain inventory policies under demand impulses[J].Studies in Informatics and Control,2008,17(1):43-54.
[16]尤 磊,王建军.煤炭企业供应链牛鞭效应模型及影响分析[J].煤炭经济研究,2009(2):36-39. YOU Lei,Wang Jian-jun.Analysis of bullwhip effect model and influence in coal enterprise[J].Coal Economic Research,2009(2):36-39.
[17]云小红,张金锁.基于需求模式的牛鞭效应分析[J].数学的实践与认识,2014,45(21):99-105. YUN Xiao-hong,ZHANG Jin-suo.Analysis of bullwhip effect for SARMA demand model in two-level supply chain[J].Mathematics in Practices and Theory,2014,45(21):99-105.
[18]Duc T T H,Luong H T,Kim Y.measure of bullwhip effect in a supply chain with a mixed autoregressive-moving average demand process[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2008,17(1):43-54.
[19]Dong Won Cho,Young Hae Lee.Bullwhip effect measure in a seasonal supply chain[J].Intelligent manufacturing,2012,23:2 295-2 305.

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
基金项目:国家自然科学基金(71273206,71473194,71103143); 陕西省科技厅自然科学基金(2013KJXX-40); 西安科技大学哲学社会科学繁荣发展计划(2016SY04)
通讯作者:云小红(1979-),女,湖北随州人,博士,讲师,E-mail:yun_xiaohong@163.com
更新日期/Last Update: 2016-07-15