[1]哈奔,张金锁,许建.中国重要能源资源进口来源地风险评价[J].西安科技大学学报,2014,(04):445-450.[doi:10.13800/j.cnki.xakjdxxb.2014.0412]
 HA Ben,ZHANG Jin-suo,XU Jian.Risk assessment of important energy resources import source for China[J].Journal of Xi'an University of Science and Technology,2014,(04):445-450.[doi:10.13800/j.cnki.xakjdxxb.2014.0412]
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中国重要能源资源进口来源地风险评价(/HTML)
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西安科技大学学报[ISSN:1672-9315/CN:61-1434/N]

卷:
期数:
2014年04期
页码:
445-450
栏目:
出版日期:
2014-08-31

文章信息/Info

Title:
Risk assessment of important energy resources import source for China
作者:
哈奔12张金锁12许建12
1.西安科技大学 管理学院,陕西 西安 710054; 2.西安科技大学 能源经济与管理研究中心,陕西 西安 710054
Author(s):
HA Ben12ZHANG Jin-suo12XU Jian12
1.College of Management,Xi'an University of Science and Technology,Xi'an 710054,China; 2.College of Energy Science and Engineering,Xi'an University of Science and Technology,Xi'an 710054,China
关键词:
重要能源资源 进口来源地 风险评价 灰色评估
Keywords:
important energy resources import source risk assessment grey assessment
分类号:
F 407.2
DOI:
10.13800/j.cnki.xakjdxxb.2014.0412
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为研究中国重要能源资源进口供应安全,结合实际需要并与专家讨论,对中国重要能源资源进口来源地风险的影响因素进行识别,构建了资源风险、经济风险和政治风险3个一级指标8个二级指标的中国重要能源资源进口来源地风险评价指标体系,利用层次分析法和多维灰色评估技术建立了中国重要能源资源进口来源地风险多维灰色评价模型,并对目前中国煤炭、石油、天然气三大能源的31个主要进口来源地进行风险评价,计算出各自的风险等级和风险值,结果显示:中国各主要能源进口来源地的风险状态整体上呈现一般态势,风险较高的来源地主要为伊拉克、也门、安哥拉、埃及和朝鲜,除朝鲜以外,其他四个国家在资源风险、经济风险和政治风险中均有导致较高风险状态的因素; 利比亚属于高风险,主要是由其较高的经济风险和政治风险所致; 而沙特、俄罗斯和澳大利亚是目前中国风险较低的能源进口来源地,主要归因于其丰富的能源储量、平稳的经济发展以及安定的政治环境。
Abstract:
In order to study the Chinese important importer of energy and resource supply security,this paper combined with the situation of the reality and identified import risk factors of the important energy resources import source for China.We establish an energy resources import source risk evaluation index system for China which involves 3 first grade indexes including resources risk,economic risk,policy risk and 8 secondary indexes,then build a multi-layer grey comprehensive evaluation model for important energy resources import source risk of China to assess 31 main energy import source risk rating of coal,oil and natural gas by using the method of analytic hierarchy process and grey assessment technology.In addition,we find the risk degree and risk value of every import source.The result shows that the risk of important energy resources import source presents average level as a whole.And the risks are higher in Iraq,Yemen,Angola,Egypt and North Korea; Libya is a high risk; while Saudi Arabia,Russia and Australia are three lower risk energy import source.The factors leading to risk are analyzed.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
基金项目:国家自然科学基金(71273206) 通讯作者:哈 奔(1989-),女,山西长治人,硕士研究生,E-mail:285531703@qq.com
更新日期/Last Update: 2014-07-15